2. Ground in evidence and context¶
Module outcome: a contract stating what evidence the decision needs, its reliability, what it cannot establish and what information would change the choice.
Data is not reality¶
Data is recorded evidence about part of reality. It may be accurate but irrelevant, timely but wrongly defined, or associative without establishing causality. Ask: Is it trustworthy and relevant enough for this decision, horizon and cost of error?
Six labels that prevent reasoning drift¶
| Label | Example | Required discipline |
|---|---|---|
| Observed fact | “420 applications were recorded.” | Source, period, population, definition |
| Calculation | “The rate was 12.4%.” | Formula, numerator, denominator, missingness |
| Inference | “The decline appears concentrated in one segment.” | Method, uncertainty, alternatives |
| Hypothesis | “Shorter response time might improve retention.” | Plausible mechanism and future test |
| Recommendation | “Prioritize segment A.” | Criteria, trade-offs, risk, authority |
| Unknown | “We do not know whether customer mix changed.” | Decision impact and gap-reduction plan |
The error occurs when a correlation becomes cause, a hypothesis becomes recommendation, or an AI recommendation becomes fact without notice.
Evidence contract¶
For every material signal document: provenance, definition, quality, population, context, uncertainty, fitness for purpose, counterevidence, and change condition—the information that would change conclusion or action.
Context outside the table¶
Context includes operational history, local definitions, incentives, capacity constraints, prior choices, exceptions and power. Capture provenance: “the team said so” is neither an approved rule nor quantitative evidence. Separate stable context, temporary context, local knowledge, and interests or incentives.
When to stop a conclusion¶
Do not advance to recommendation when a material denominator cannot be reconstructed; definitions changed unadjusted; affected segments are missing; a model is out of population; causal explanation rests only on timing; sensitive data lacks legitimate permission or purpose; or uncertainty changes option ordering. Stopping a conclusion need not stop the decision—it may require a smaller, more reversible option or guardrail.
Stress test¶
- What is the strongest counterargument?
- Which conclusion depends on one assumption?
- Could the pattern arise without the proposed mechanism?
- What group, period or outcome is invisible?
- Does the source define the concept or only report an observation?
- What uncertainty makes options indistinguishable?
Deliverable¶
Build one row per material item using the nine contract fields. End with three lists: we know, we infer, we do not yet know.